Fire in Flagstaff and Beyond: Understanding Fire Danger and Prevention

On the morning of June 12th, 2022, a Coconino National Forest fire lookout reported a small blaze near Schultz Pass, just six miles north of Flagstaff. In the following days, despite an immediate response by emergency personnel, a combination of strong winds and warm, dry weather pushed the fire northeast of Flagstaff toward the community of Doney Park. The Pipeline Fire, as it was called, was about 5000 acres in size as of June 13th.

Just one day later, the Pipeline Fire had more than doubled in size. 40 to 50 mile per hour winds whipped the flames across the Dry Lakes Hills and northeastern portions of the San Francisco Peaks. Evacuations were ordered for thousands of homes, while many others remained on standby awaiting further updates. By the time crews contained the fire at the end of June, it had burned around 26,000 acres.

In the American west, wildfire frequency and intensity have dramatically proliferated in recent decades. In 2022, the same year that the Pipeline Fire spread across the Kachina Peaks, more than 20,000 wildfires burned around 5.8 million acres across the Western U.S. in California, record-breaking fire seasons seem to occur annually, with more than 10 of the largest wildfires in the state’s history occurring in 2020 alone. Here in Northern Arizona, just months before the Pipeline Fire broke out, the Tunnel Fire burned 19,000 acres in east Flagstaff, scorching Sunset Crater National Monument and destroying more than 50 structures, including 30 residences.

With summer heat in full swing in Flagstaff and beyond, it is crucial as recreationists to understand fire risk and the role that we play in preventing large-scale fire across our public lands. Doing so not only helps protect the natural world in which we live, work, and play, but also protects ourselves and our community members from the adverse social impacts of wildfire.  

Introducing Wildfire

Put simply, a wildfire is an unplanned, uncontrolled, and unpredictable fire that occurs in an area of combustible vegetation. This term ‘wild’ here is an important distinction, as wildfires differ from prescribed fires, which are those carried out purposefully for the benefit of both society and forest ecosystems. It is also crucial to note that many ecosystems, such as the ponderosa pine forests around Flagstaff, actually depend on fire as an essential function of habitat vitality and renewal. This is what experts and managers usually refer to as ‘good fire.’ In that sense, many naturally occurring wildfires (such as those caused by lightning) are left alone or monitored at a distance by land management agencies. Other wildfires, however, are human-caused; it is these types of anthropogenic wildfires with which we, as recreationists, are primarily concerned. 

In recent decades, with periods of drought and large-scale heat waves increasing, many wildfires are what the U.S. Interagency Fire Center calls ‘megafires’: those that burn more than 100,000 acres and/or have a disproportionately large impact on the environment and society. While naturally occuring ‘good fire’ is beneficial to forest ecosystems, these megafires are unnatural for the landscapes of the American west. They present significant environmental and social danger to communities across the region. In September of 2020, for example, a series of five different megafires swept across Oregon. The Labor Day Fires, as they were called, burned more than 850,000 acres, killing eleven people and destroying more than 4000 homes. 

In many of these places, such as Flagstaff, urban and suburban areas are located adjacent to large swaths of forestland. Here in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), there is an increased risk of negative impacts on communities. This is so not only because of the proximity of combustible vegetation to homes and other structures, but also because these structures are often highly combustible themselves, which compounds both the risk and impacts of fire. Neighborhoods such as those along Schultz Pass and in Doney Park are prime examples of the WUI, as they back up to Coconino National Forest boundaries and are densely wooded.

Causes and Impacts of Wildfire

Large-scale fires have two main types of ignitions: natural and human. Natural causes include lightning strikes, volcanic activity, and sparks from rock falls. As previously noted, many naturally caused wildfires are managed differently than those caused by humans, with wildland fire crews letting them burn to a certain extent or for a certain amount of time. On the other hand, human-caused wildfires are usually the result of accidental ignition (although it is estimated that arson may account for up to 20% of human-caused wildfires). Accidental ignition can be the result of leaving a campfire smoldering, dropping a cigarette, or letting a stationary vehicle run for too long over tall, dry vegetation. This is why, for anyone who recreates outdoors, it is vital to understand conditions of increased fire risk, check for fire bans, and remember to always drown your campfire ‘dead out.’ The term dead out means that you can place your hand on top of where the campfire was located and feel that it is cool to the touch. 

Ignition and subsequent spread of wildfires heavily depends on the amount of ‘fuel’ present. In this context, the term fuel refers to any material capable of burning, characterized by many factors such as its size, quantity, moisture content, and arrangement across the landscape. Fuels can be grasses, trees, woodpiles, houses, wooden decks, and even propane tanks.

When wildfires tear through public lands or the WUI, there can be large-scale ecological and social impacts. Ecological impacts include degradation of forest productivity, soil structure and health, decreased air quality, and increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Moreover, in areas like Flagstaff that experience seasonal monsoons, flood risk is exacerbated due to the eroding of soils and loss of tree cover. Social impacts, other than destruction to life and property, can also include economic losses, mental health concerns, psychological trauma, and long-lasting environmental health detriments from exposure to harmful particulates.

Understanding Fire Danger, Conditions, and Restrictions

There are many factors that can increase or decrease the risk of wildfire on a given day or during a given season. When recreating outdoors, it is vital to recognize these conditions and keep them in mind while running, hiking, climbing, mountain biking, and more. 

In general, the four conditions that influence fire danger are humidity, wind, air stability, and drought. Extreme fire danger, as such, is often a result of periods of low humidity, high winds, unstable air, and increased drought. The patterns that support these conditions can be divided into two categories: those that produce strong surface winds and those that produce atmospheric instability. 

These conditions inform the U.S. Forest Service’s National Fire Danger Rating System, a scale that rates daily fire danger in a given area. In Flagstaff, for example, the Forest Service Ranger Station on East Route 66 displays the fire danger on the side of the highway so that locals and visitors alike are up to date. 

The system rates daily fire danger as Low, Moderate, High, Very High, or Extreme.

1. Low: Fuels do not ignite easily from small embers, but a more intense heat source, such as lighting, may start fires in duff or dry, rotten wood. Controlling fires is generally easy.
2. Moderate: Fires can start from most accidental causes, but the number of fire starts is usually low. Fires are still not likely to become serious and are easy to control. 
3. High: Fires can start easily from most causes, and small fuels (such as grasses and needles) will ignite readily. Fires can become serious and difficult to control unless put out while still small.
4. Very High: Fires will start easily from most causes, and will spread rapidly with quick increases in intensity right after ignition. Fires are difficult to control and will often become large and long-lasting.
5. Extreme: Fires of all types start quickly and burn intensely. These fires are very difficult to fight and can become very dangerous, often lasting for at least several days.

This array of conditions and danger are used to inform local and regional fire restrictions on public lands. These restrictions dictate what kinds of activities and types of fires can occur in a given area, which is why they are crucial elements with which recreationists must familiarize themselves. There are three levels of fire restrictions: Stage 1, Stage 2, and Stage 3. Below are specific details regarding these levels of restrictions for Coconino National Forest. You can refer to the following link to read more about fire restrictions: Fire Restriction Stages Explained.

1. Stage 1 Fire Restrictions
   • PROHIBITED at all times: (1) lighting, building, maintaining, or using a fire, including charcoal and briquettes (including smudge pots); (2) smoking outside.
   • EXEMPTIONS: (1) using a stove or grill that is solely field by pressurized liquid petroleum fuels (such as a backpacking stove that uses an isobutane canister); (2) having a campfire within a fire structure provided by the Forest Service in a developed recreation site; (3) smoking within an enclosed vehicle or building or a developed recreation site; (4) any federal, state, or local officer, or member of an organized rescue or firefighting force.
2. Stage 2 Fire Restrictions
   • PROHIBITED at all times: (1) igniting, building, maintaining, or using a fire anywhere within the national forest, including developed recreation sites (including charcoal, briquettes, and smudge pots); (2) smoking outside; (3) blasting, welding, or operating an acetylene or other torch with an open flame; (4) motorized vehicle use on specific forest roads near the San Francisco Peaks, Pumphouse Wash, and Marshall Lake areas.
   • PROHIBITED from 9am – 8pm: Operating a generator, chainsaw, or other equipment powered by an internal combustion engine. 
   • EXEMPTIONS: (1) residents using motorized vehicles on forest roads to the extent necessary to access their property; persons with a written Forest Service authorization; (3) using a stove or grill that is solely fueled by pressurized liquid petroleum gas; (4) smoking within an enclosed vehicle or building or developed recreation site; (5) persons operating generators with an approved spark arresting device in a barren area; (6) any federal, state, or local officer, or member of an organized rescue or firefighting force.
3. Stage 3 Fire Restrictions: Forest Closure
   • Under a Stage 3 restriction, all entry is prohibited due to extreme fire danger. At times, the National Forest may close specific parts of the forest (area closures) or the entire forest. Whenever a closure is implemented, the public cannot enter any National Forest lands, roads, or trails.

Fire Safety Tips for Recreationists

1. Pick your campfire spot wisely, building them at least 15 feet away from tents, shrubs, or other flammable material, and ideally within already existing fire rings/pits.
2. Clear an at least 10-foot diameter around your fire, and make sure there are no limbs or branches hanging low above the fire.
3. Build a small campfire that will stay well within the fire pit and/or the area around it that you cleared. 
4. Extinguish the fire properly by pouring water on it to drown all embers (not just the red ones); if possible, let the fire burn down to ashes first. After that, use a shovel to stir everything in the firepit and test to make sure it is dead out (cool to the touch). 
5. Inspect your vehicle for any loose metal or debris dragging underneath it before taking a forest road.  
6. Always check available resources before you recreate, including local weather forecasts, state fire websites (such as CalFire), and InciWeb (where you find information on all wildfires currently burning across the country). 
7. Fireworks are never allowed in national forests at any time.

The Larger Context of Fire in the Western U.S.

Wildfire is a heated topic in the American west. Public perception around wildfire has ebbed and flowed throughout time, but for most of the 20th century, fire was regarded in an entirely negative light. In 1935, the Forest Service adopted what is known as the 10 A.M. Policy, under which wildfires had to be contained and controlled by 10 o’clock the morning after they were initially reported. Only years later, during World War II – with most firefighters drafted to fight abroad and amidst a growing fear that Japan might weaponize wildfire on the Pacific Coast – preventing any and all fire became a national priority. 

Today, the tides are shifting again. Better and more accessible science about fire ecology has taught us that fire is an essential ecological function of many landscapes. Yet the effects of decades of fire suppression continue to play out, as fuel build-up over time began to reach critical mass. This build-up, coupled with a more than 700% increase in the WUI population in the U.S., have transformed the Mountain West, Southwest, and Pacific into a massive tinderbox. In 1978, the Forest Service officially abandoned the 10 A.M. Policy and began conducting widespread prescribed fires. 

Other factors have come into play to exacerbate wildfires as well. In Arizona and throughout the Southwest, a changing climate has led to annual average temperature increases and longer periods of extreme drought – two of the main factors that contribute to fire danger. With a very dry late spring and early summer in the Southwest and forecasts for a delayed monsoon season, the 2024 fire season is shaping up to present significant danger. This means that it is more important than ever to recreate responsibly: drown your campfire dead out, understand and follow fire restrictions, never use personal fireworks, and pack out all trash.

Resources and News

A large part of our role as recreationists is to stay up to date on fire safety and danger. With that in mind, there are many resources available to educate ourselves and stay informed. Below are a few important examples.

1. National Weather Service: Assess temperature, humidity, and risk of thunderstorms and lightning in the area you plan to recreate.
2. InciWeb: Information on all currently burning major fires, including size, containment percentage, presumed cause, and more. It also will usually show prescribed burns going on in your area.
3. United States Forest Service: The USFS website contains an entire repository of wildland fire-related information, including prevention, education, and wildland firefighting career opportunities. Most National Forest webpages will also include up-to-date information on Forest Orders and fire restrictions: Coconino National Forest Fire Restrictions and Forest Orders.
4. Coconino National Forest Alerts and Notices: Information on alerts, closures, and fire restrictions across Coconino National Forest, including a map of current wildfires.   
5. Smokey Bear: Public announcements and education on fire safety and responsibility for recreationists.

As we enter the heat of the summer in Flagstaff, and with the Fourth of July right around the corner, recreate responsibly and practice fire safety and prevention at all times while in the outdoors. See you out there!