Where’s Winter?

Drought in the Southwest and Why Recreationalists Should Care

Calendar vs Climate: Flagstaff and Beyond

Here in Flagstaff, ski season is in full swing. Or, at least that’s what it says on the calendar.

If you’ve spent time outside lately, it certainly doesn’t feel like winter. Snowpack on the San Francisco Peaks is thin, bony, and crusty. Trails that should be snow-covered are dry, or muddy at best. Mornings remain crisp, but afternoons are warm, sun-drenched and slow. For those of us who live, work, and recreate in Flagstaff, the disconnect between calendar and climate is hard to ignore. We are surrounded by the seasonal sounds and rhythms of a winter economy, without the conditions that usually make the season feel lived and real. 

It’s no secret that so far, this winter has been unusually warm and dry. This is true even by the standards of an arid region increasingly defined by drought. As of mid-January, Flagstaff recorded 14.4 inches of snow, which is about 19 inches below normal levels (Scwartz 2026). Temperatures have also been well above average, meaning that precipitation has fallen as rain instead of snow, hurting snow accumulation in the San Francisco Peaks and across Northern Arizona’s expansive ponderosa pine forests. National Weather Service outlooks for the coming months are leaning toward normal precipitation, making experts worry that additional snow will be unlikely and/or minimal (Schwartz 2026). 

The Larger Context: Drought in the Southwest

These issues are symptomatic of a larger problem across the American Southwest: long-lasting drought. The Southwest is currently in the throughs of a more than twenty-year long megadrought, causing severe water shortages in major reservoirs like Lake Powell and Lake Mead and increasingly severe summer fire seasons. Furthermore, scientists have observed that global La Niña events are becoming more frequent overtime, causing a feedback loop of warmer, drier winters within the context of these pre-existing drought conditions (Borenstein 2022).

Why does this matter for Northern Arizona? It all boils down to snowpack and water. Snowpack in the high-country, and specifically the Kachina Peaks, acts like a natural reservoir, slowly releasing water throughout the spring and summer, serving to sustain forests, rivers and streams, farms, and communities. This massive release of water is crucial for our state’s waterways, including the already drought-pressured Colorado and Little Colorado Rivers that flow through the Grand Canyon. But less snow now means less water later. That’s not abstract; here in Flagstaff, we see real, year-to-year impacts, such as the severe Dragon Bravo Fire on the North Rim of the Grand Canyon during the summer of 2025.

Why Should We Pay Attention?

For outdoor enthusiasts, this is more important than we sometimes realize. The activities we love—hiking, skiing, climbing, biking—are sustained around the places we love. And the places we love can only continue to exist given that their physical and ecological wellbeing can flourish. This means that in order to recreate on these lands and waters, we operate on an assumption of stable seasons and predictable conditions. These assumptions, however, are unraveling. Trails erode faster without winter snow cover; forests under pressure from drought become more vulnerable to large-scale fires; shortened winters compress ski seasons into narrower windows. What feels like a ‘weird winter’ is often the start of a harsher summer, one that begins sooner and stays hotter than in the past. 

Oftentimes, we frame these changes as personal losses—which is true. A warm and dry winter means less time spent on skis and leads to a fire-prone summer of recreation closures across Coconino National Forest. We often use these activities and these places as a means of escape, or maybe as a way to disconnect or reconnect or reset. Feelings of grief and frustration are real. But getting caught there misses the collective importance of natural spaces and public lands for a community like Flagstaff, for indigenous people who have lived here since before the founding of the country, and for the health of Arizona and the Southwest as a whole. 

Caring collectively means paying attention and acting in the places we call home. As a local outdoor community and as stewards of the places where we live, work, and play, we are uniquely positioned to witness the changes of drought and climate change up close. We see them in the snowpack and trail conditions, in fire restrictions and water shortages, in the way seasons blur together. That proximity gives us responsibility as much as it gives us access. If we are uniquely positioned to these problems, so too are we uniquely positioned to care and to advocate. 

What Can We Do?

Here are a few resources to get involved and continue to educate yourself about the impacts of drought and climate change, in Northern Arizona and beyond. 

1. Get involved in climate advocacy at a local level. The City of Flagstaff has an official Climate Action Program that includes myriad ways for community members to get involved at varying levels. Click this link to learn more. 
2. Want to get involved in climate advocacy on a broader scale? There are many organizations across the country and the world. To start, check out a few
   1. Climate Action Network: https://climatenetwork.org/
   2. Citizens’ Climate Lobby: https://citizensclimatelobby.org/ 
   3. Sunrise Movement: https://www.sunrisemovement.org/ 
3. In Flagstaff, water policy and sustainability are often discussed in City Council meetings. Community members can attend meetings to give verbal public comments. You can also contact the Mayor and City Councilmembers directly via email at council@flagstaffaz.gov. Click this link to learn more about City Council meetings’ agendas and see when water policy will be discussed. 
4. Some great educational resources to familiarize yourself with the scientific, social, cultural, and political dimensions of drought in the Southwest:
   1. Southwest Drought Learning Network: https://dln.swclimatehub.info/
   2. Colorado River: https://coloradoriver.com 
   3. Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center: https://www.swcasc.arizona.edu/ 
   4. Parched: The Art of Water in the Southwest (documentary): https://coconinoarts.org/exhibitions/parched-the-art-of-water-in-the-southwest/
   5. The American Southwest (documentary): https://theamericansouthwest.film/ 
   6. Cadillac Desert (book): https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/323685/cadillac-desert-by-marc-reisner/ 
   7. Dead Pool (book): https://glencanyon.org/product/dead-pool/ 

Pray For Snow: In Flagstaff and Beyond

This winter may still deliver snow.; here in Flagstaff, we sure hope it does. In any case, however, the story of this winter is worth listening to. Access to public lands and recreation is no longer separate from larger conversations surrounding conservation, climate change, and land and water management. As a local outdoor community, if we care enough to be out there, we should care enough speak up too. 

Sources

Borenstein , Seth. “La Nina 2022: Is La Nina Becoming More Frequent? | 9news.Com.” 9 News, May 28, 2022. https://www.9news.com/article/news/nation-world/la-nina-west-coast-climate/507-f792ab4a-bc35-4e45-9de1-08d8379dfc9b. 

Schwartz, Ian. “Where Is All the Snow in Arizona?” https://www.azfamily.com, January 19, 2026. https://www.azfamily.com/2026/01/19/where-is-all-snow-arizona/.